Update color spreads from a recent sale
Color gaps change from sale to sale. Enter one sale's prices for the same weight class and WeighUp works out each color's spread against black.
Sell now or keep feeding
| Scenario | Sale wt | Days | $/cwt | Net $/hd | vs. sell now | Value of gain | Cost of gain | Breakeven |
|---|
Sale prices for each hold scenario are projected to the month you'd sell, from feeder cattle futures and the usual seasonal swing for that weight. Odds are the chance the sale price ends up above breakeven. See the Outlook tab for how it's worked out.
Value of gain is the extra sale value per pound put on. When it beats your cost of gain, keeping the calves adds money. Net is after shrink, commission, feed, pasture, vet, interest and death loss. Feed and costs are set on the Feed & costs tab.
Price slide
Your cattle across the country
| Market | Report | $/cwt | $/head | vs. your local |
|---|
Same weight, class and color, priced at your local market and the major national markets. Freight to a distant barn isn't included.
Where cattle prices are headed
Futures for the next 12 months
The line is what buyers and sellers on the futures market are paying today for cattle delivered in each month. It's the market's best guess, not a promise: The shaded range widens with time because there's more room for prices to move.
Your calves, month by month
| Sell in | Weight | $/cwt | Likely range | $/head | vs. today |
|---|
Weights grow at your expected gain from the Sell or hold tab. Before feed and other costs; the Sell or hold tab nets those out.
Leave at 0 to go with the futures market. Use it if you expect your area to run stronger or weaker than the national market.
Cattle supply
How the forecast works
- Start from your local price. The latest USDA sale-barn report near your ZIP, at the weight you'd sell, with your hide color adjustment.
- Move it with the futures market. Scaled by how far feeder futures for your sale month sit above or below today's cash index. Local premiums and discounts carry through.
- Adjust for the season. Light calves and heavy feeders follow different seasonal patterns (University of Arkansas price index, 2011–2020). Futures already price the heavy-feeder season, so only the difference is applied.
- Show the range. Feeder futures typically swing about 20% a year. The likely range covers about 2 out of 3 outcomes; the odds on the Sell or hold tab use the same spread.
Information only. Futures and USDA reports are public market data; WeighUp doesn't predict prices beyond what they show. Forward contracts, LRP insurance or futures hedges can lock in a price if the range is more risk than you want; talk with your lender or a marketing advisor.
Market estimate: grower feed for your calves
EstimateUse the price on your feed bill for the finished TMR or mixed feed, or the market estimate above.
Prices fill in from USDA reports; type over any with what you pay. Pounds are per head per day, as-fed. Example ration
| Ingredient | $/ton | DM % | lb fed |
|---|
Cost of gain at your inputs
If feed prices move
| If this goes up | Now $/ton | Feed $/hd/day | Cost of gain | Hold result |
|---|
Most I can pay for calves
For backgrounders: what you could pay today and still break even selling heavier, at the price the market points to when you'd sell, with your feed and costs.
If they go on to finish
How it's worked out
Most I can pay: projected sale value at the sell weight in the month you'd sell (after shrink and commission), minus feed, pasture, vet, interest and death loss for the days on feed, divided back to a price per hundredweight at the buy weight. Hide color applies here too.
If they go on to finish: live cattle futures for the month they'd reach finish weight, plus your basis. Retaining ownership compares that finished value, less feedlot cost of gain, interest and death loss, with selling them as feeders. Feedlot cost of gain of $1.10–$1.40/lb is typical with corn near $4.50.